01
Build the thesis
Build a persistent investment thesis with explicit claims, supporting evidence, valuation assumptions and unresolved questions.
Fundamental investment research
The research operating system for fundamental investors.
Connect evidence, assumptions, thesis and valuation in one auditable investment workflow.
For asset managers, family offices, boutique funds and equity research teams.
Alderwyn Indutrial Group
Illustrative company · Industrial components · FY2019–FY2024
Illustrative companyIllustrative data
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.4%
+180 bps vs. prior year
Operating margin
14.2%
−240 bps vs. prior year
FCF conversion
63%
−9 pts vs. 5-yr average
ROIC
12.8%
WACC 8.6%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
Covenant 3.0x
Valuation range
42 – 61
Base case 51 per share
Operating margin evolution (%)
17.1FY20
16.6FY21
16.4FY22
16.6FY23
14.2FY24
Scenario outcomes — value per share
Bull61
Base51
Bear42
Illustrative data · assumptions editable
Source documents
- Annual report FY2024 — 214 pagesIndexed
- Q4 earnings transcriptIndexed
- Capital markets day presentationIndexed
- Interim report H1 FY2024Indexed
Principal risks
- Input-cost pass-through slower than assumed
- Product mix shift toward lower-margin segments
- Customer concentration in the principal market
- Working-capital build reducing cash conversion
ZOREV ASSESSMENT
Source document
Annual report, page 84
Extracted evidence
Gross margin declined by 240 basis points
Financial significance
Higher input costs and adverse product mix
Model assumption
Base-case margin assumption revised
Valuation impact
Illustrative valuation impact: negative
Counter-thesis review
Illustrative- Revenue growth accelerated, but cash conversion weakened.
- Base-case margin expansion depends on an assumption not supported by the latest reporting period.
Investment-thesis summary
Durable demand supports mid-single-digit volume growth, but the investment case depends on margin recovery and improved cash conversion. Thesis-breaking condition: input-cost pass-through remains incomplete through the next two reporting periods.
Example analytical workflow · illustrative data
Evidence linked to claimsAssumptions linked to valuationAnalyst approvalInstitutional investment memory
Thesis ↔ evidence mapping
Trace every material conclusion back to its evidence.
Keep qualitative research connected to quantitative valuation. Link evidence to claims, claims to assumptions, and assumptions to the investment thesis through their valuation impact.
- 01
Evidence
Source passages that support, weaken or contradict a claim.
- 02
Claim
An explicit interpretation of what the evidence means for the investment case.
- 03
Assumption
The operating or financial inputs used to test that claim in a scenario.
- 04
Valuation impact
How those assumptions affect cash flows, sensitivities and value.
- 05
Thesis status
The analyst's assessment of the case and the questions still under review.
Product value
One workflow for building, challenging and reviewing a thesis.
Zorev gives fundamental research a durable structure: evidence linked to claims, assumptions linked to valuation, and a record of the judgements that shape the investment case.
02
Challenge the thesis
Keep the counter-thesis alongside the investment case. Track contradictory evidence, fragile assumptions and conditions that would invalidate a claim.
03
Review thesis evolution
Compare new evidence with the existing investment case and preserve the reasoning behind changes for the next review.
Five connected capabilities
A connected record of investment reasoning.
01
A persistent investment thesis
Keep the investment question, claims, evidence and unresolved issues in one research context that carries forward between reviews.
- Business-model economics
- Sector-specific drivers
- Risk profile
- Repeatable structure
02
Thesis ↔ evidence mapping
See which evidence strengthens, weakens, or contradicts the thesis. Follow each claim through its assumptions to valuation, while keeping facts separate from analyst interpretation.
- The underlying claim
- Supporting evidence
- Contradictory evidence
- Original source and publication date
- Confidence level
- Missing or unresolved information
03
Counter-thesis and contradiction tracking
Keep conflicting evidence and alternative interpretations open for analyst review, alongside the conditions that would weaken the thesis.
- Fragile assumptions
- Contradictory evidence
- Potential accounting or disclosure concerns
- Questions management has not clearly answered
- Conditions that would invalidate the thesis
04
Assumptions with valuation consequences
Keep valuation connected to research judgement. The intended workflow links operating assumptions to forecasts, cash flow and value, so analysts can challenge the inputs and review their implications for the thesis.
- Revenue growth
- Volume and pricing
- Margins
- Working capital
- Capital expenditure
- Cash generation
- Cost of capital
05
Thesis evolution over time
Review new disclosures against existing claims and assumptions. Preserve the context behind revisions so the next investment committee can understand what changed and why.
- What changed
- Which assumption was affected
- Whether the evidence strengthens or weakens the thesis
- Whether an invalidation condition was reached
- What to investigate next
Track thesis evolution over time
Move from an earnings update to a thesis update.
Review new information against the thesis you already hold. The intended workflow goes beyond a document summary: compare new evidence with existing claims and identify what needs another look.
- 01
New evidence
- 02
Thesis comparison
- 03
Strengthened / weakened / contradicted
- 04
Assumptions to review
- 05
Thesis status
Since the previous review
Illustrative example · intended workflow
- Revenue evidence strengthened.
- Margin evidence weakened.
- A new competitive risk appeared.
- The revenue-growth assumption requires review.
- The analyst changed the thesis status from “supported” to “under review.”
Compare new evidence with the existing investment case: what strengthened, what weakened, and what introduced a contradiction or risk? Identify assumptions requiring review and examine their potential valuation impact before updating the thesis status.
This describes Zorev’s intended workflow. The current MVP does not automatically perform all these steps end-to-end. Analysts assess the evidence, approve revisions and decide whether the thesis status should change.
Counter-thesis
Keep the counter-thesis visible throughout the research process.
The intended workflow preserves contradictory evidence, the analyst’s response and the evidence required next. Track unresolved challenges between reviews instead of allowing them to disappear into notes.
The software supports professional judgement. It does not replace it.
Illustrative challenge · intended workflow
Investment thesis
Pricing power protects margins.
Counter-thesis
Competitive pricing pressure is increasing.
Contradictory evidence
Illustrative competitor disclosure reports increased discounting.
Analyst response
Review whether pricing pressure could weaken the margin assumption.
Evidence required next
Next-quarter gross-margin data.
Status
Open challenge — awaiting further evidence.
For investment organisations
Research that an investment committee can examine.
Consistent standards
Apply a common analytical structure while preserving individual analyst judgement.
Investment committee review
The intended decision record connects a committee decision and date to the thesis, evidence, valuation assumptions and named analyst and reviewer responsibilities.
Institutional investment memory
Preserve accepted risks, invalidation conditions and the rationale for thesis revisions, so later reviewers can understand what was known and why a decision was made.
Analyst approval
Keep review decisions explicit. Evidence approval, valuation assumptions and the final investment judgement remain distinct.
See the research operating system in practice.
Explore a connected investment workflow from source evidence and valuation assumptions to analyst review and thesis evolution.
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